Glaring Omission

It was pointed out to me that I could not possibly engage with the Liberal Leadership Battle without mentioning Tony Abbott in a little more depth.

I must first confess that last night I had not seen seen much coverage of Abbott's annoucement, this, however has changed.

Today I read Annabel Crabb's excellent and always amusing column and found this:

"If you'd told me three days ago that by Monday Tony Abbott would be making a run at the Liberal leadership based on his "people skills", I would politely have assumed you were smoking something. And if anyone can nominate a more hilarious fib than Kevin Rudd's claim on Sunday that he had found this election "a humbling experience", I am all ears."

As am I!

Abbott's decision to run on his purported people skills is an even crazier strategy than his assertion that he will stay true to Howards ultra-right legacy.

Honestly... we all know that Abbott has no people skills, none! In fact, he doesn't have a personable bone in his emaciated, wannabe priest, head-kicker body. Remember this is the man that attacked Bernie Banton, a man dying of complications due to asbestos exposure, in the middle of an ELECTION CAMPAIGN!

I'd vote for him.... no really, I would.

Hell kids the only thing I can say is if Tony can run maybe I can too, based solely on my right wing credentials of course!

I still maintain that if they pick Turnbull now it'll be too soon and as much as I love Keating, Bish is also a liability, at least at this stage. That unholy duo may claw back some of the deficit in 2010 but only if they get a short run. If I were a Lib strategist Nelson would be my man. Not because he has much to offer, actually primarily because he doesn't.

Pick ME!!

So the knives are out and the race is on. Turnbull, the wet, was the first. Tony the ultra right head kicker was second and now Dr Nelson has announced his honourable intentions.

Meanwhile heads are rolling. Most self induced of course, but the attrition rate is astonishing. Brough on the night, Costello on Sunday, Downer has removed himself from the race (no doubt he will not contest the next election either) and now Mark Vaile, the leader of the coaltion partner the National Party, has also jumped ship...all for his family of course!

I am disconcerted about the idea of Julie Bishop as a likely contender for the deputy leadership. Well I suppose we would feel bereft without someone to accuse of me tooism. I have to say she is a poor (actually rich) man's Gillard with none of the spunk or intelligence but with blue-chip twinset and pearl credentials. While I want to see a woman run this country taking on a SA lawyer on because she is a woman, and tows the line is not ideal.

It is a tough strategic decision... largely because it is likely that this will be a two term Labor government. The new leader needs to weather the next 3 years and then no doubt another 3 before having a chance to win. Turnbull has plenty time to have his sheen rubbed off in that time. it would make sense to install one of the others (I'd pick Nelson of the contenders announced) to weather the storm. But that would require a certain amount of sacrifice or pragmatism. Perhaps if the good Doctor realises that he will never win an election but could satisfy some of his ambition with a little time at the top, he may be the man for the job.

Rudd has gone to work and we shall see what that brings but.... for now leadership battles and party implosion on the right is all the news that is fit to print!

Goodness gracious ladies and gentlement brace yourselves! It is going to be bloody, but there is nothing like public backstabbing for a bit of entertainment.

Bring it.

As an afterthought, there are seven seats still undecided, however it seems that Labor is leading in five. A 20 seat majority. That must surely mean at least a 2 term Labor Government? If they pick Tunrbull I hope, for the Libs sake, he doesn't peak too soon.

you got to know when to fold....

Can't say I am unhappy about last night.

Actually I am ecstatic. Certainly the result more unequivocal than I could have possibly have dreamed. There was a clear statement made about what Australians think about the direction of this country. I just hope it wasn't all about interest rates.

Certainly Federal Labor has benefitted from a strong anti-Howard feeling. The Coalition is very much linked to Howard's leadership and people have clearly lost faith in that leadership. I think it would be foolish, however, to assume that Rudd's proclaimed new leadership will be much more than simply a changing of the guard. Well that is unless we make sure it is. Labor has made few strong policy statements, and fewer promises. Not unexpected considered the pre-election polling, why make promises when people are going to vote for you anyway.

This may represent an opportunity though. It means that there is an agenda to be set. And it means that we should think about how we are going to set it.

One of the other interesting results in this election is the swing to the Greens. And that despite the mood for change and the fear of "narrowing polls" (and I feel tempted to say 'yeah right' to that considering the results) which might lead strategists to assume that people will vote more conservatively in order to assure a Labor victory. The Greens look also to have picked up some seats in the senate, 3 new seats according to the ABC online today. This is great news for the party and goes some way to deal with what is potentially the greatest threat to Australian Democracy; having one party controlling both houses of parliament. Without that we wouldn't have had WorkChoices, VSU or many other pieces of legislation that the Coalition felt (clearly to their detriment) that Australia needed.

I am extraordinarly happy that Mal Brough has gone. I am also happy that Lindsay spoke at the polls against bigotry, lies and cheating. I wish Turnbull was similary nursing a hangover and disappointment, and while it was always unlikey, if Joe and Tony had fallen my happiness would have know no bounds.

It is too early yet to know if Howard has lost his seat... God knows I am hoping against all hope. Nevertheless, that Maxine McKew managed to have such a large swing in a safe seat, held by the same member for 30 or so years and one that was held by the current Prime Minister, is an astonishing achievement. And a huge statement by the electorate. Even Howard is conceding in the press today that it highly likely that he will lose, meaning that he will join the ranks of sitting PMs who have lost their seat (yes there is only one and it hasn't happened since 1929).

Howard's Menzies complex, his own ambition, and his arrongance have cost him government and perhaps his seat. Well they do say pride comes before a fall and boy has Howard fallen.

Perhaps Howard should have listened to a little more Kenny Rogers. He overplayed his hand and worse than that he didn't know when to cash in his chips.

So, the King is dead...long live the King.

P.S. Well well, always the bridesmaid never the bride!

I have just found out on SMH online that Costello will not seek nor accept the nomination for the leadership of the Liberal Party. That is despite Howard's endorsement (kiss of death?) pre-election. Who will be the next leader? $50 says Turnbull.

At least Costello knows when it is time to go.

T'was the night before polling.....

The irony of seeing Anthony Albanese speak about the Fake Pamphlet scandal in the marginal seat of Lindsay on Lateline last night was palpable. Perhaps he is considered an authority on matrimonial influence since he is the the federal half of Labor's very own power couple, the King and Queen of Marrickville. Nevertheless, the question must be asked, can we really believe that neither Jackie Kelly, nor the current candidate (who's husband is also implicated), nor the Liberal campaign manager, really could not have known what was going on? Labor sure seemed to....

Now I will admit here that I didn't watch the interview. I am suffering from serious election fatigue and I don't find Albanese or Ruddock who was also on, particularly appealing, even after a schooner or two. So I am not going to comment on it. What I am interested in the the Liberals apparent ineptitude when it has come to campaigning in this election. I have only lived in Australia under a Coalition government. That puts me in a similar position to many people voting for the first time in this election. In every federal election to date it has seemed that Howard and the Coalition could literally not put a foot wrong. Partly this has had to do, I think with federal Labor's inability to offer strong opposition. They have been for eleven years or so Liberal Lite. I think they still are really. But for some reason this time it doesn't seem to matter.

Why?

Well perhaps because eleven years is just too long. People want a change. If the Liberal party had changed leadership earlier they may have been in a better position, and I am not talking Costello because who in their right mind would vote for him?!

The next problem is WorkChoices (it really makes my skin crawl to call it that because the only people it really offers genuine choice to is to business). This is one of the most broadly unpopular pieces of legislation the government has introduced and using their senate majority to ram it through backfired I think. It has solidified "battlers'" resistance to both the legislation and the government because it seemed to take no consideration for the opposition. But again, why did this not happen when Howard and co. introduced the GST after promising hand on heart that they would never do it?

I suspect it has something to do with the media. Not a new or insightful comment admittedly. What it seems is that for the first time in eleven years the mainstream media outlets have moved away from subtle (in a few cases) or quite overt support of the government. One could say that they seem to read the mood of the country better than the pollies. But I think we have the cart before the horse. I think the media contributes enormously to that sentiment. I am convinced that what happened in Lindsay is not a new tactic. I am convinced that the government's lies and arrogance are not new traits. This time, however, they are being reported and we are seeing the Liberals for what they are; liars and cheats at worst, frightened at best.

We still see headlines that warn us that business is bracing for the return of the Unions, as was on the front page of the Fin Review yesterday. We are still being told that the polls are narrowing, that the coalition could still win, but this reporting serves Labor as much, if not more than the Coalition. Simply because it makes people afraid. Afraid that the mood for change is not strong enough, afraid that we might have 3 more years of the coalition (if we think they are bad now imagine what the next term will be like when they have won the "unwinnable" election), afraid that we may end up with a PM we didn't even vote for.

We all know that winning this election is a big ask. As has happened before a party can win the most votes and not the most seats... and Labor needs to win 16 new seats (didn't Latham get a kicking?). That is a huge swing in real terms. But not imossible. A poll released last week showed Labor leading in 18 marginals, if they deliver that is a landslide in anyone's books.

Personally I want to see a change, I would love it coupled with a change in Bennelong, but I am not fooled. We will all need to push to keep the ALP honest. The scene has been set for mendacity and wilfulness, remember when Howard said with a straight face that involving us in Iraq was an example of his not being a poll driven politician since he simply ignored the massive displays of public sentiment (you know the great unwashed he is supposed to represent) that were so vehemently opposed to it.

This is a government that has shown itself to be more concerned with keeping their jobs than doing their jobs. Lets make them redundant, take away their penalties, because if there is one thing I know, elections certainly pass the fairness test.